It's funny in that the longer Fedor Emelianenko fights the higher the percentages go up that he'll eventually lose provided he's fighting legitimate competition. Fabricio Werdum is a legitimate heavyweight and he does have chance at defeating Fedor Emelianenko although most people think Fedor is going to roll right through him. I was in that line of thinking as well until I started looking at the big picture and the past performances of both fighters
Fabricio Werdum is the most complete fighter that Fedor will have faced since Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira back in 2004.
Werdum has adequate standup now since he began training with the Chute Boxe academy and is a much more accomplished grappler than Nogueira. Not to mention that Fedor is now 33 years old and not the man that was entering his physical prime when he fought Nogueira for the third time.
Also, Fedor's style of fighting has changed over the years. Many people criticize Rampage Jackson for being merely a boxer nowadays, specifically headhunting and looking for the knockout. If you look back at Fedor's last three fights, he has been content with looking for the knockout without any real urgency to take his opponent's down and work his vaunted submission game or ground and pound. The ferocious ground and pound he exhibited back then against Nogueira has been pretty much non-existant over the past 4-5 years.
Many people look back at Werdum's fight with Junior Dos Santos and equate that to an automatic win for Fedor. Especially considering that Fedor has somewhat patented that overhand right from hell with it's pinpoint accuracy and speed. However, that was the only time that Werdum has been finished in his career which spans back to 2002. I'm of the opinion that that uppercut from Junior Dos Santos would have put any heavyweight down for the count as he has exhibited massive power since that fight.
Would he even want to goto the ground with someone like Werdum who's a pretty good sized heavyweight in his own right?
I think this is going to be a much more competitive fight than most people think. Will Werdum be able to pull off the upset? If I were betting man, there's no way you can bet against Fedor and I will be picking Fedor. However, considering Fedor's age, vulnerablity lately, coupled with Werdum's skillset/strategy(I expect him to be pretty cautious). I wouldn't be that surprised to see Werdum win a decision.