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UFC 109 MMA4Real Staff Predictions

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Charles Walker:

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman

- Ehhh, this one's about 8 years too late but I guess this is the best Joe Silva could do for now.  I could do a long breakdown but is it really needed?  This fight will undoubtedly come down to cardio and who's keeps up and who's drains quickest.  Both guys are relatively equal in the wrestling department, Couture's the better striker, and I don't see either attempting a submission unless the other is relatively unconscious in the first place.  I think the first round will be the most important because Im' not sure if either can finish the other, but I think Couture can keep up a pace Coleman can't and I think Couture can stay out of harms way long enough to score points en route to a decision victory.

Nate Marquardt vs.Chael Sonnen

- In my opinion Marquardt's better than Sonnen everywhere.  Sonnen might be the better wrestler, but I see no way he holds Nate down for three rounds.  Nate's more aggressive style has been pretty much unbeatable since his loss to Anderson Silva and I don't see it changing here.  I'll take Marquardt via decision, only because I think Sonnen's tough enough to take the impending beating.

SBN coverage of UFC 109: Relentless



Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

- Unless Miller comes in and catches Maia with a heavy, heavy haymaker, this will most likely be a grappling contest and one that Dan Miller can't win.  I see Maia wrapping him up and submitting him by the third round.  Look for this to be very similar to Maia's fight with Jason MacDonald.

Matt Serra  vs. Frank Trigg

- I really don't care enough for this fight to analyze too deep.  Serra's punching power will probably be on display and I think he could land a shot and floor Trigg but I could also see Trigg pulling a Matt Hughes on Serra and just getting dominant position for 3 rounds.  This is a coin flipper to me and I'm going to go with Serra via TKO in round 2.

Paulo Thiago vs. Mike Swick

- Hmmmmmm, Thiago's really shown he's tough and has been thrown to the wolves his whole time in the UFC and has only lost once to Jon Fitch.  Swick looked horrible against Dan Hardy but I don't think he'll have to worry about the striking of Paulo who throws really sloppy and plus he has the Koscheck fight to watch over and over.  I think Swick can beat Thiago to the punch for three rounds and win a very unexciting decision.

Mac Danzig vs. Justin Buchholz

- Danzig's looked horrible his last few fights so I think this is his gimme fight.  I think Buchholz will be game but I don't see him being better than Danzig at anything and I see Mac pulling out a solid decision victory.

Melvin Guillard vs. Ronnys Torres

- Melvin suffers from the Sokoudjou syndrome.  Starts good but then falls apart if he can't finish the fight.  I don't know a whole lot about Torres but he seems to be a solid opponent.  I'm actually going to give the nod to Torres via some sort of submission in the 2nd round.

Rob Emerson  vs. Phillipe Nover

- I really like Nover and I think this SHOULD be a good competitive fight.  Both are pretty decent strikers and I don't see either taking this to the mat, so we should get a good all out war.  With that said, Nover has had the worse chin issues of the two, so I could very well see him getting melted but I'll have faith he gets through and scores a unanimous decision.

Brian Stann vs. Phil Davis

- Davis via decision, I hope, but if my boy Stann does get the win we could be seeing Stann/Shogun or Stann/Machida very soon.

Tim Hague vs. Chris Tuchscherer

-As long as there's no nut shots, Tuchscherer via TKO in Round 2.

Rolles Gracie vs. Joey Beltran

- Gracie via submission in round 1

Rich Wyatt:

- Randy Couture over Mark Coleman by TKO in the 2nd. Couture by osteoporosis,er, knockout in the 2nd.
- Nate Marquardt over Chael Sonnen by TKO in the 3rd. Sonnen should provide an interesting challenge, especially if he's able to execute his normally effective smothering style. I think that Marquardt's well rounded skill and excellent training camp pay dividends here.
- Demian Maia over Dan Miller by Submission in the 3rd. This is the main card fight that I'm most looking forward to. I'm interested to see how Maia bounces back from his first professional setback. Miller is a tough opponent.
- Matt Serra over Frank Trigg by Submission in the 3rd. Matt's going to exchange a little with Frank and then put him to sleep.
- Paulo Thiago over Mike Swick by decision.
- Phil Davis over Brian Stann by TKO in the 2nd. Two talented young fighters here. Stann trains with a superb team but I have a good feeling about Phil's chances here.
- Rolles Gracie over Joey Beltran by Submission in the 2nd.
- Chris Tuchscherer over Tim Hague by TKO in the 2nd.
- Mac Danzig over Justin Buchholz by TKO in the 3rd.
- Phillipe Nover over Rob Emerson by decision.
- Ronnys Torres over Melvin Guillard by Submission in the 2nd.

Kelvin Hunt:

Coleman vs. Couture-Again I think this fight will be a lot closer than most think.  Couture isn't going to knock Coleman out, the probability that he subs him is pretty low also because if Coleman gets the takedown he'll just lay in Couture's guard and try to drop some bows.  Cardio is the X-factor here and Couture has the edge, but if Coleman can be successful with one take down per round...he has a chance to win a decision.  However, I think he fades as the fights wears on and Couture will take a UD.

Marquardt vs. Sonnen-Marquardt is the better fighter where ever this fight goes.  I think he'll be too big and too strong for Sonnen to take down and keep down.  However, Sonnen is a scrapper so I don't expect Marquardt to put him away easily as this fight will be a grinder more than likely unless Marquardt catches Sonnen is a sub.  Which wouldn't be out of the question since Chael falls into those from time to time and Marquardt ground game is very good.  I'm go with Marquardt via UD though.

Swick vs. Thiago-Tough fight for Swick here.  I think Thiago is the more powerful of the two and has the better ground game.  Thiago was able to hang with Jon Fitch on the ground and Fitch is strong as hell.  Swick has the speed and stand up advantage, but Thiago has a good chin and his stand up is somewhat servicable.  I think Thiago gets this fight to the ground and chokes Swick out for the mild upset.

Maia vs. Miller-Come on, do you really think Miller can hang with Maia on the ground?  Thought not.  Maia via Sub.

Serra vs. Trigg-Even the smack talk for this one hasn't lived up to my expectations.  Hard fight to call considering Trigg's last fight was over very quick and Serra hasn't fought in almost a year.  Trigg should be able to win this fight since he's the bigger guy with a wrestling advantage.  I want to pick Serra by rear naked choke so bad I can't hardly stand it, but that long layoff could hurt him somewhat.  I'm go with Trigg via split decision.

Danzig vs. Buchholz-Danzing should be able to win this fight.  If not, kiss him goodbye.

Guillard vs. Torres-If Guillard could keep this one standing, he could win it.  But he always does something stupid and winds up on the ground and gets submitted.  Torres is a huge lightweight as is Guillard, and those UFC jitters might get too him?  Probably not, as his ground game is light years better than Guillard. Torres via Submission. 

Davis vs. Stann-Davis is the much better wrestler and I see him taking that route to get his first UFC win in is debut.

Nover vs. Emerson-Nover is the more well rounded fighter, but has failed to live up to the hype.  I'm get back on the hype train and go with him via submission in this one.

Tuchscherer vs. Hague-Ehh...Tuchscherer via size.

Gracie vs. Beltran-Gracie will get the fight to the mat and win via submission. 

Matt Bishop:

Mark Coleman vs. Randy Couture

I think Couture is too well-rounded for Coleman at this stage (or any). Coleman is a great story but this is not a good matchup for him. He's not going to be able to take Couture down and that is probably the only spot where he could win it. Couture takes a decision.

Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen

I really like this fight. Nate Marquardt has been rolling ever since losing to Anderson Silva and should be able to march to a rematch here. Sonnen has put himself into the limelight by mouthing off (good for him), but Marquardt is just too much. I can't see Sonnen winning by anything but decision. Marquardt can win in multiple areas. He takes it by second round TKO.

Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago

The AKA vs. Paulo Thiago series continues with this fight. Swick steps in for teammate Josh Koscheck and this should be a good one. I'm not too sure on this one, but I think Thiago takes it. Call me crazy. Thiago by decision.

Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller

I love this fight. The Millers are tough guys and Dan is going to need it to beat Demian Maia. I think Maia gets back on track here with a second round submission.

Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg

Yawn. Trigg by decision.

Justin Buchholz vs. Mac Danzig

Danzig by decision.

Melvin Guillard vs. Ronnys Torres

Guillard has shown *some* issues defending submissions in the past. That could be a problem here against Torres. Let's go with Torres by first round rear-naked choke.