Nate Diaz could be fighting with his back to the wall at the tender age of 24 years old. He's coming off back to back boring decision losses against guys that are stronger, and better wrestlers than him. He'll face more of the same on Wednesday night, the only difference is that Melvin Guillard will be trying to take his head off instead of trying to take Nate Diaz down to the ground. Diaz comes into this fight with an overall record of 10-4 with 7 wins coming via submission and 2 wins via the TKO/KO variety. Diaz has a very good skill set, but usually gets off to slow starts mentally and he hasn't been able to turn it on enough lately to pull out the win. He'll need to put it all together against the very powerful and explosive Melvin Guillard.
Guillard is coming into this fight on a three fight winning streak dating back to March 2008. We last saw Guillard winning a razor close split decision win against the always tough Gleison Tibau at the TUF 9 Finale. Guillard brings an overall record of 22-7 with 13 wins via TKO/KO and 3 via the submission variety. Guillard claims to have put his inner demons aside and now is concentrating fully on MMA. Guillard has tons of potential, great physical attributes, but never seems to be able to put it all together. However, with a win over Nate Diaz he can establish himself as a player in the crowded UFC LW division.
I think this will be an exciting fight, because Guillard usually comes to fight and Diaz does as well as long as his opponents don't hug him like Teddy Ruxpin. Guillard will want to keep this fight standing, and while Diaz will enjoy a significant reach advantage, he'll want to attack Guillard's suspect submission defense. Out of Guillard's 7 career losses, 6 of them have come via submission and Diaz is a very good BJJ player with 3 submission victories in the UFC. If Diaz stands and trades with Guillard, he's pretty durable but Guillard has awesome punching power and it could be a short night. Diaz doesn't have the best take downs and Guillard will be the stronger of the two fighters, so it'll be interesting to see how Diaz gets Guillard to the ground. However, I think it'll eventually wind up there with Diaz getting the submission victory. However, if Diaz is content with standing I wouldn't be surprised to see Guillard put him away. What say you?