Of course, this is simply all in fun. Since I am a poor college student, I choose to make my wagers in the low-risk environment provided by the great site CentSports. Not only is it legal, it's free! CentSports is a site funded by advertisers. You get 10 cents to start with and try to build up your nest egg from there. The catch is you can only cash out using a weird system once you hit $20. And if you go belly up, they just give you another 10 cents. Regardless of the funky cashout system, it is fun to wager using real odds at low risk. The best part is they have most MMA and K-1 events, as their odds seem to be provided by Bodog.
Now that I have that plug out of the way, here are my most serious picks and plays for UFC 101. Odds as of 11 p.m. ET Friday night.
I realize the chance for me to look like an idiot here is large, but I'm willing to roll with it.
First off, let me state I'm a big fan of the parlay. Of course, these are high-risk, high-reward type deals. I've hit several 5-fight parlays in the past (you can only parlay up to five fights in one bet) and they pay off.
First off, here is my main parlay. To me, these three fights represent the biggest value with the lowest risk on the board.
Kendall Grove (+155), Kurt Pellegrino (+190), Johny Hendricks (-120) - 25 cents to win $3.34
While I like both Kenny Florian and Forrest Griffin as underdogs, I don't like them enough to put them in my parlay, even though there is more money to be made with them. These three, on the other hand, represent great value to me. I have no clue why Pellegrino is such a large underdog. Grove looked good in his last fight while Almeida has been shaky and if Hendricks were facing any other 1-0 fighter, he'd be a prohibitive favorite.
I would recommend individual bets on any of the three, as well.
As for the rest of the card, nothing really jumps out at me. If you think Forrest Griffin can pull off another upset, getting him near +260 is something to take a serious look at. Outside of that, nothing else strikes me as being worth a serious play. You can bet on guys like Thales Leites (-525), but at that point, you're putting 5.25 cents just to win a single cent. To actually get a decent payoff, you have to beef that up and like it would at any ratio, Thales Leites is not Anderson Silva, who is one of the only guys I will bet on at those odds (but only in the middleweight division).
So there you have it. We'll see Sunday how I did. Don't spend all your change in one place!
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