If you are a casual fan that watched the Countdown to UFC 100, you probably came away thinking Frank Mir was indestructible and Brock Lesnar has absolutely no shot at winning this UFC 100 fight. After all, Mir did win the first encounter and he was brimming with confidence on the show. He made it seem as if the beating he was taking prior to getting the knee bar was calculated on his part. I’m not saying that Lesnar is going to walk thru Frank Mir, but I will tell you that Mir will have a fight on his hands come this Saturday night. Check it:
You know the old saying, ‘you are only as good as your last fight’? A lot of people use that expression, and in most cases there is some truth to it. However, I don’t really think that’s the case in this one. Everyone is talking about how good Frank Mir’s striking looked against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 92. While it did look impressive at first glance, the fact of the matter is Nogueira isn’t a threat to knockout anyone on the feet. The other important thing to remember is that Mir didn’t have to worry about a Nogueira take down. This pretty much allowed him to freely throw strikes at his leisure, and he was successful in taking Nogueira out.
This will not be the case against Brock Lesnar. Not only will he be facing a guy that has KO power in his hands, he’ll be facing a wrestler that will be able to take him down at will.
Mir is confident in his striking ability, but Lesnar’s wrestling will nullify half of it which happens to be the kicking aspect. We probably will not see many if any kicks from Mir, due to the fear of being taken down. Mir can rave about his ground game all he wants, but nobody wants to be underneath a Brock Lesnar. Also, the fact that Lesnar has had 17 months to train since their last encounter probably lessens the chances of being caught in a submission. In fact, Lesnar escaped a couple of arm bar attempts from Mir in the first fight before being caught with the knee bar. This just leaves Mir with hands to throw in terms of his striking game, in which Lesnar will have the reach advantage.
It’s possible that he could catch Lesnar with a big punch or knee as Lesnar shoots for a take down. He could conceivably submit Brock Lesnar again. However, the likelihood of that happening is relatively small. So when you really think about it, Mir’s offensive arsenal will be much more limited than he would have you believe.
How do you see it going down and why?