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TUF 9 Finale: Can Melvin Guillard Beat The Odds?

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The past two years have been long for Melvin "The Young Assassin" Guillard.  He's endured back to back losses in the cage, positive cocaine tests, and probation violations.  The latter keeping him from appearing on the UFC 90 card in Chicago last year.  Now with all that behind him and 16 months of being sober, Guillard will return to the cage this weekend to face the always tough Gleison Tibau.  Let's take a look at what how he and Tibau match up:

Melvin Guillard-KO power, very athletic, solid wrestling, is vulnerable to submissions

Gleison Tibau-Huge LW and very strong, good submission game

It's no secret that Guillard will want to keep this fight standing, as he's vulnerable to submissions and that's a strong suit of Tibau.  Usually Guillard enjoys a size/strength advantage, but I don't think that will be the case here.  I've seen Tibau in person before, and let me just say that I have no idea how he makes 155.  Tibau has been stopped via TKO a couple of times, so it's not out of the realm of possibility for Guillard to end it early.  However, I think the longer this fight goes the more it'll benefit Tibau.  Guillard's been out of action since July of 08', so I'm sure there's some cage rust in his game.  Whereas Tibau has already fought twice in 2009, winning both fights against scrappy opponents.  He should look to take Guillard down and use his size/submission game to his advantage.

I know some people don't care for Guillard and think he's bad for the sport, but I like the guy for some reason.  I'm just happy to see him get his life back together somewhat.  He has a tough road ahead of him on Saturday night.  He's beaten the odds a couple of times in terms of getting sober and back in the cage, do you think he can beat the odds on Saturday night?  Give me your thoughts. 

The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale coverage