Most people are probably leaning toward Frank Shamrock in this fight, but Shamrock only has one way of winning this fight. He has to knock Nick Diaz out. He's not going to submit Diaz, and he's not going to win a decision. Does Shamrock have the more power striking of the two? Probably so. However, Diaz has never really been knocked out in his entire career. He's been stopped twice, once on cuts and he was TKO'ed against Jeremy Jackson early in his career. Nick Diaz has A LOT of advantages in this fight. Check it:
- Reach Advantage
- As good, if not better on the ground than Shamrock
- Much Better Cardio
- Shamrock Is Coming Off Another Long Layoff
As far as the ground game, injuries have pretty much limited Shamrock and I just don't see him being able to catch Diaz in anything. Also, he's already admitted that Diaz's length on the ground would cause problems. Therefore, I'm pretty sure he'll want to keep this fight on the feet(like's he has done for the majority of the time since coming back).
As I mentioned earlier, Shamrock has the power advantage, and he can probably goad Diaz into a standup war. However, this has all the makings of Diaz/Lawler I, except Diaz will probably not be able to stop Shamrock. If Diaz can keep his head and use that reach advantage to pepper Shamrock with punches(like he normally does) he should be able to win a decision fairly easy in my opinion. I think the long layoff will be detrimental to Shamrock as well. The pace that Diaz pushes will be too much for Shamrock, and the longer the fight goes the the more Shamrock will swing for the fences causing him to gas even more. Shamrock's cardio has been pretty suspect, and I see it being a problem for him in this fight. I expect this fight to go to the judges, with Diaz winning a decision.