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How Well Will UFC 104 Do PPV Wise?

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The UFC 104 Countdown Show did slightly better than UFC 103 and UFC 102, but still still below the average ratings for 2009 and 2008 as a whole according to mmapayout:

Monday night’s Countdown to UFC 104 drew an average viewership of 524,000 on Spike TV, which is below the yearly average of 676,000 and also below last year’s average of 613,000.

Of course the average for 2009 is skewed a bit by the huge rating that the countdown show for UFC 100 received, but you would think the ratings would be a bit better with the light heavyweight championship on the line.  I think Machida's popularity is ever increasing and he could be on the cusp of becoming a legitimate PPV headliner with a big win this weekend.  His English is steadily improving and his style is becoming much more fan friendly.  UFC 103 reportedly did around 400K, and UFC 102 reportedly did between 425K-450K.  So it seems as if the baseline for domestic UFC ppv's is around 400K with foreign shows now doing in the 300K+ range.  I think UFC 104 could ultimately end up in the 450K range with a title being on the line, plus it's been quite a while since the last UFC ppv.  What kind of numbers do you see UFC 104 doing ppv wise?

UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun coverage