UFC RIO QUICK THOUGHTS AND PREVIEW

     The UFC will return to its roots this Saturday night, gifting its presence to the booty-laden beach paradise that is Rio de Janeiro. We all know the storied history of Brazil’s role in the birth of our beloved sport, so I will not delay you with another synopsis of the Gracie legend, but instead offer you some quick thoughts on this weekend’s card, including a few betting tips. WIthout further ado:

    Starting near the bottom of the card we have a very interesting match up in Dan Miller vs. Rousimar Palhares. The leg-collecting Palhares is a fairly heavy favorite coming into this fight but I question the logic there. Palhares’ Jiu-Jitsu is as deadly as it comes but, perhaps because of this strength, he has demonstrated himself to be fairly one dimensional and the blue print for success against him has been laid out before (see Dan Henderson vs. Palhares). Now, Dan Miller is no Dan Henderson, last names matter, don’t let anyone tell you different. However, Dan Miller is one of the scrappiest, toughest fighters in the UFC and he has NEVER been finished in his MMA career, not even by Jiu- Jitsu wizard Damien Maia. He would obviously do well to keep this fight standing, I do not expect him to have resounding success with that, but if he can keep the fight on the feet long enough to score some points with superior striking and mix things up on the ground a bit he has a very real chance of stealing a decision here. A loss here would be Miller’s third in a row and since he is neither British nor wields a mohawk, that would likely spell expulsion from the organization. I’m betting this brings out the best in him. At +245 at your local internet sports book Miller is a decent wager.

    Next up we have always exciting veteran Spencer Fisher vs. the hometown boy Thiago Tavares. Sadly, I think the curtain may be closing on what has been a very entertaining career for “The King” (but hopefully not before we see him test the waters at 145 lbs.-where he rightfully should have spent his career). Thiago, coming off a tough loss, will be looking to play it smart and get back in the win column. He will take this fight to the ground early and often and grind his way to a decision victory.

    The dangerous and aggressive striking of Luis Cane will grace the presence of Saturday’s card. After blazing a respectable trail through the light-heavyweight division with three straight wins to start his UFC career, Cane dropped a couple first round KO losses, promptly being forgotten about by the general public. However, after a KO over TUF alum Elliot Marshall he appears to be poised to reassert relevance in the division. His competition is a relative unknown, but Cane could fight a lamppost and it would be entertaining, so enjoy.

    Edson Barbosa is a better striker than Ross Pearson. But then again, Edson Barbosa is a better striker than 98% of the guys in the UFC, so relax Ross. The big unanswered question here is the ground game and take down defense of Barbosa. Pearson would be smart to test Barbosa with what he is hoping is a more well-rounded game, perhaps controlling Edson on the ground and in the clinch en route to a decision victory. If they stay upright Barbosa will work Pearson like an albino pinata filled with cherry kool aid. 

  
    The great Nogueira may only be 35, but its a high mileage 35. This is a clearcut case of the young lion being brought in to retire the elder one and it may be the last chance to have Nogueira compete in the UFC in front of a Brazilian crowd. Schaub by KO in round 2.

    The next fight is a potentially entertaining rematch that will look absolutely nothing like the first fight. Years back Forrest Griffin beat an injured, ring-rusted Shogun who was 25 lbs. overweight. If the rejuvenated Shogun who KO’d Machida steps in the ring on Saturday night Forrest Griffin is in serious, early trouble. Rua takes this by first round KO. Shogun is the bet here, even at a healthy -280.

    Ok, main event time. Its always a pleasure to see the brilliant Anderson Silva perform and this event offers for him an intriguing match-up. For starters, its the opportunity to avenge a “loss” (via DQ for illegal up-kick). Its also a tricky stylistic match-up for Anderson who historically has the most trouble with good, strong wrestlers. Now, Okami does not have wresting pedigree or skill of Chael Sonnen, but he still has the strength, experience and grappling skill to put Anderson in some tricky positions. I see Okami taking things to the mat early and attempting, more or less ineffectively, to ground and pound the spider while narrowly escaping Silva’s bottom game. Come round 2 and 3, with Okami losing steam, the take downs will fail and Anderson will find his opening, cracking Yushin’s jaw like young Jimmy’s corn.