UFC 113: Breakdown and Predictions

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Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida vs Mauricio "Shogun" Rua 

In the main event we will see the second meeting between champion Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (16-0) and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-4). The last time we seen both in action was UFC 104 when they fought to a decision. Many felt that Ruawon the fight with his effective leg and body kicks, but that was not the case. Machidawalked away with a highly disputed unanimous decision. Dana White felt that Shogun won the fight thus giving him the immediate rematch.

Breakdown

Lyoto Machida

Machida is a counter striker who depends on jumping in to strike and jumping out to avoid counters. Lyoto's attacks are based on distance andseeing as he likes to land kicks with his foot instead of his shin, Lyoto is always a fair distance from his opponent. Lyoto also likes to do a lot of kick faints and keeps his hips moving to mask his attacks. As we have seen in the past Lyotois also quite capable on the ground and has great take down defense. Shogun was stuffed every time he went for a take down. Up until his fight with Rua there were no visible holes in Lyoto's game, but after the fight it was clear to see that Lyoto needs to control distance in order to control the fight. Lyoto does not like being crowded and i'm not sure if his kicks are ineffective, but he is not comfortable throwing his kicks if the fighter it too close. Also it seems if a fighter takes away Lyoto's legs it seems to really cut down on his effectiveness.

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua

Shogun is known as a aggressive fighter who tears apart fighters with his Muay Thai and ground attack. Rua's first pair of fights in the UFC led some fans to believe that the Shogun of old died with Pride, but after he destroyed UFC legend Chuck Liddell it gave fans hope that Rua had returned to form. Following the win over Liddell fans got exactly what they wanted with a very fast, accurate, and powerful Rua against Machida. In the Machida fight Rua showed an ability to cut the cage off like no other and also great concentration. Rua focused on Lyoto's hips and not his limbs, landing a strike every time Lyoto attacked and slowly broke Lyotodown. Shogun did he however get tagged with a few big knees to the stomach and also slowed down his attack once he felt he was ahead and decided to coast instead of trying for the finish. The only clear weakness that was seen in Rua was carido, but much of this was contributed to his injuries. Shogun came into the first title fight witha resting pulse rate of 46 which is an indicator of the kind of shape he was in.

Prediction

This fight is hard to predict seeing as Shogun has lost the element of surprise and there is little doubt that the Machidas have watched the last fight more then a paranoid father watches his teenage daughter. On the countdown show the Rua's manager tried his best to say that they will keep the Machidas guessing, but the truth is Shogun tried hard for take downs in the first fight and just could not pull one off. I see Machida watching for leg kicks and not being a little more comfortable landing kicks with his shin. WIth that said i see Shogun looking for blood in this fight and if Lyoto allows his legs to get beat up again i see Rua ending the fight in the later rounds.I am on the fence for this fight so i will base my prediction on the last fight, with that said i think Shogun will go for blood in this fight and i think he will stop Lyoto in the later rounds.

Mauricio Rua via TKO 4th round.

Future

If Shogun wins the title it is a no brainer, he will face the winner of Rashad/Rampage. If Rampage wins it would make for a great rematch from the Pride days. With the best of Pride show the UFC have a place to show the last fight and fill people in on the rivalry.  If Shogun wins a close decision it isn't out of the realm of possibility for there to be a rubber match. If Shogun losses i would put him up against Lil Nog or the loser of Rampage/Rashad. There is also the option of putting him against Thaigo Silva.

If Lyoto earns the W he will face Rampage if he wins against Rashad. Rashad on the other handwill have to look impressive against Rampage to get a rematch with Lyoto. If Rashad is next for Lyoto it would have been 4 strigtht fights in which he only fought two fighters. Personally i would skip Rashad if he wins and give Lyoto a fresh fight. Maybe Lil Nog if they would actually agree to fight one another.

The rest of my Predictions and breakdowns after the jump.

via www.mmaweekly.com

Josh Koscheck vs Paul "Semtex" Daley

In the co main event we will see AKA product Josh Koscheck (14-4) take on Team Rough House smashing machine Paul "Semtex" Daley (23-8-2). Both these guys have an ego the size of a zeppelin and both will be looking to make an example of the other. Kos will step into the cage this weekend riding a 2 fight winning streak. The last time Koscheck graced the octagon he put a hurting on up andcoming Anthony Johnson, finishing him in the second round via rear naked choke. Paul Daley exploded into the UFC with a TKO victory over Martin Kampman then went on to smash jiu jitsu wiz Dustin Hazelett. Daley will be looking to extend his four fight winning streak in Montreal.

Breakdown

Josh Koscheck

Koscheck is a division 1 wrestling champion andhas a monster double leg. Once it his the ground Kos has shown some serious ground and pound also the ability to submit guys. Once on the groundvery few have the control Josh has. In the Johnson fight Josh was able to have his way with a man much bigger then him who was also had wrestling experience. From his days on TUF, Koscheck has improved on everything from his GnP to his submission skills, but what has been improved upon the most is Josh's striking. Josh has developed some serious power in his right hand and has not been shy displaying it. In his most recent wins 3 out of 5 were by KO or TKO. One of Koscheck biggest flaws is his ego. In the fight with Paulo Thiago we seen Kos use some sloppy strking against a guy he stated he diden't worry about. Of course Paulo knocked his block off and the very same can happen if he plays around with Daley on the feet. Koscheck likes to make examples out of guys, but if he thinks he is going to just walk in and stand with a guy like Semtex andget away with any thing he could end up seeing tweety birds.

Paul Daley

Daley is a dude who does not question what he is good at and is quick to say what he wants to do, and that is strike. Daley has one shot KO power in bothhands. His left hook is lethal and he is great at finding a place for it. Daley does tend to stand flat footed while looking for his one punch to connect, but with some great combinations it does not matter because he only needs to connect once. Power aside his flat footed stance will get eaten up by a wrestler the caliber of Josh Koscheck. In the fight with Jake Shields, Daley had problems keeping the fight standing and Shields is not as explosive as Koscheck. Shields likes to grab on a work for the takedown while Josh shoots the guy to the fence and throws him to the ground. Daley was unable to handle Daley could have trained his entire camp for wrestling and still not be on the level of Koscheck.

Prediction  

I see Daley coming out looking to land some strikes and get Kos out of there quickly.  Paul knows that if he gets one shot it needs to count because if he stings Kos there is no doubt it will become a ground fight. The only chance Daley has in this fight is if Kos decides to let his ego take over and stand. I feel as though Kos does not want to be knocked down the ladder again thus he will not push his luck with Daley. If Kos thinks he is in any danger of losing the fight he will take it to the floor and grind on Daley. I see Kos taking this fight if he fights smart against Semtex. I give it to Koscheck 2nd round tko or submission

Josh Koscheck 2nd round TKO/ Submission

Future

If Daley wins this there is a good chance he will end up coaching on TUF andfollow that up with a shot at the title. The division needs a new challenger for the belt and Daley is just as good as any. If Daley losses there i would put him in there with "Rumble" Johnson or maybe Mike Swick to build off a AKA vs Team Rough House angle.

With a victory Kos will coach the show and get the next title shot. Josh has the skill set to beat GSP and is a much better fighter then he was when they last met. Kos now has the power to put Georges and will some sharping up on his wrestling he has a realistic chance of stopping some of GSP's take down attempts. If Kos losses this fight i would throw him in there with Dan Hardy. Those two exchanged some words before Hardy had his title shot and it also works the camp vs camp angle.

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Kimbo Slice vs Matt Mitrione

In the other major fight of the night we will see street fighting super star Kimbo Slice(4-1) take on TUF 10 castmate Matt Mitrione (1-0). Kimbo will be looking to get his second win in the octagon. Kimbo was last seen in a very wierd fight against UFC cast off Huston Alexander. Kimbo showed some improvement in his skills but at the same time showed that he is damaged goods when a leg kick left him on the mat unable to get up. Seeing as he only has one pro fight and his stint on TUF it is hard to tell what his strenghs are, but Matt Mitrione does have power which he used to put Marcus Jones out cold in his pro debut.

Breakdown

Kimbo Slice

Kimbo is what he is, a dude who will glove up andfight any one. On the ground he is trying but still not at a level were he would be a threat to any real heavy weight contender. Kimbo does have some nice head movement and power in his hands, also has some decent defence and does not take a lot of shots on the feet. Of course his weakness is clear, little ground game and a broken down body. Kimbo does have one shot KO power which is his best path to victory.

Matt Mitrione

Matt only has one fight so judging where he is as a fighter can be a bit hit or miss depending on his learning curve. In the fights i did see he has power in his hands and from his football days has some balance and strengh. Now whether or not it will translate to MMA is yet to be seen. Matt does tend to take shots quite a bit and tends to just stand there and trade. Once again its hard to judge where this guy is in his MMA game based on one fight. If he has a good learning curve he could have improved the flaws i have seen in the past.

Prediction

This fight can go either way and I believe it will come down which fighter worked harder on becoming a well rounded mixed martial artist. In this fight if Matt wants to trade with Kimbo there is a good chance he will be put out. Kimbo has much better defense then Big Baby. Big Baby has a very open stance which Mitrione took full advantage of to finish the fight. Kimbo is very compact and has good movement. If this turns into a slug fest i have to give it to Kimbo because he has nioce counters and good defense. Matt will want to make a statement here and look to put Mr Slice in lala land. so i will give it to Kimbo1st round TKO.

KimboSlice via 1st round KO/TKO

Future

A win for Kimbo means he will get another lower teir heavy weight on a PPV card. To be honest the UFC should have kept Paul Buentello around to fight Kimbo win or lose. Kimbo is the type of draw in which it won't matter whether he wins or losses, he will just move to the bottom of the main card.

For Matt this is a chance for him to make a name for himself. The show is a great starting point but putting a hurting on Kimbowill help his drawing power. With that said a win does not do a lot as for moving up the ladder. The most a win will do for him is keep him on main cards. If he wins give him Struve, if he losses give him Al Turk.

Rest Of Televised Card

Jeremy Stephens (16-5) vs Sam Stout (15-5-1)

Sam looked amazing in his last fight and i see him being able to pick Stephens apart.
Sam Stout via Decisions

Patrick Cote (15-5) vs Alan Belcher (15-6)

Cote will not only be fighting a very game Alan Belcher but also some ringrust. Belcher has been impressive of late, but in his fight he has taken some clean shots and walked through them easily. It is his habbit of taking shots that will cost him in this fight. If Cote lands a clean blow this fight is over, thus i give the fight to Cote 2nd round KO.
Patrick Cote 2nd round KO.

Undercard Predictions

Tom Lawlor def Joe Doerken via Decision

Marcus Davis def Jonathan Gouletvia KO round 1

T.J. Grant def Johny Hendricks via Decision

Tim Hague def Joey Beltran via 2nd round submission

Yoshiyuki Yoshida def Mike Guymon via Decision

Jason Macdonald def John Salter via 2nd round submission