Strikeforce: Nashville BreakDown and Predictions

via mmaaddicts.com

Dan Henderson vs Jake Shields

In the main event former Pride duel champion Dan "Hendo" Henderson (25-7) will battle Jake Shields (24-4-1) for the Strikeforce middle weight strap. Henderson was last seen hulk smashing Michael Bisping's face at UFC 100.  Hendo is riding a 3 fight win streak notching victories over former UFC middle weight champion Rich Franklin and powerful grappler Rousimar Palhares. Shields is fresh off a win over Jason "Mayhem" Miller in a fight in which many felt exposed Jake's lack of power and finishing ability. Shields has not lost a fight since 2004 and hopes to keep that streak alive.

Breakdown

Dan Henderson

Henderson is a elite level greco roman wrestler and has one shot KO power in his right hand. Henderson is also very confident in his skills and has pulled guard believeing that he will be able to work from the bottom to gain a dominant position. Henderson is known for grinding out decisions, but with his power a KO is only one strike away. One of the major advantages Henderson has one of the best chins in the business, and rarely gets hurt by strikes. Henderson has been in the ring with sluggers such as Wanderlei SIlva (x2), Rampage Jackson, and Anderson Silva and has yet to be knocked out. While Henderson has KO power his technique consists of loading up his right hand and throwing it like a baseball. His striking is predictable and slow leaving him open for counters. Henderson also had some cardio issues in the Franklin fight, but looked great in the Bisping fight.

Jake Shields

Jake is a great wrestler and has strong submissions. Jake's strengh is on the ground and his ability to control and maintain a dominant position on his opponent. Sadly that is really all he has going for him at this point. Jake had Mayhem down for most of the fight and was unable to inflict any meaningful damage on Miller. The decision was an easy one for the judges seeing as Shields controlled the entire fight, but he never came close to ending the fight. On the feet Jake is stiff and throws weak punches that have shown to have no effect even if they land. The other issue with Jake is he is a welter weight and size isn't on his side in the middle weight division.

Prediction

Dan will be too much for Jake to handle in this fight. Jake's only road to victory is to take Henderson down and hold him there for a decision win or pull off a submission. The problem is it isn't an easy task to take Hendo down and then keeping him there is going to be even more difficult. Henderson has fought at 205 and cuts a fair amount of weight for 185, while Jake is a blown up welter weight. Henderson is stronger than Jake and also Jake's lack of power will cause Hendo to step forward without worrying about strikes. I see this playing out something like the Bisping fight, except Shields will have the common sense to step away from Henderson's power. I predict a late second round KO or decision for Henderson.
Dan Henderson 2nd round KO/ Decision

Future

If Henderson wins there is no clear challanger for him to face next. The best option for Strikeforce to do is place Mayhem and Jacare Souza in a number one contenders match. Aside from that I see Henderson jumping up in weight to face the winner of Mousasi/King Mo. If Henderson losses then the best thing for him would be to jump to 205 any ways and fight Babalu. The fight with Babalu will set the winner up as the number one contender in the division. The LHW division in Strikeforce is thin at the moment and if Hendo losses at MW there is no reason for them to keep him there.

I think this fight means nothing to what Jake has in mind. I see him testing the free agent market and 7 chances out of 10 he will end up in the UFC. Bottom line is right now Shields is fighting out of his division and with his buddy Nick Diaz as the welter weight champ i don't see him dropping down and time soon.

via strikeforce.com

Gegard Mousasi vs Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal

In the second title match we will see current champ Gegard Mousasi (28-2-1) put his belt on the line against the crasimatic Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (6-0). Mousasi was last seen fighting the over the hill Gary Goodridge in a fight that should not have happened.  Mousasi has not lost since he got arm barred by Akihiro Gono back at Bushido 12. King Mo was last seen in the cage as he earned a one sided victory over MMA vetern Mike Whitehead.

Breakdown

Gegard Mousasi

Gegard has looked amazing and unstopable since his loss back in 2006. Gegard has great striking and has shown to be quite capable on the ground as well. Mousasi is arguaabally the best light heavy weight  outside of the UFC. Dispite his impressive smashing of Babalu, Goodridge, and Sokoudjou, Mousais has shown that he is susceptableto being caught in submissions. In his match with Denis Kang, Mousasi was being handeled rather well, but lucky for him Kang has a way of losing fights like no other.

Muhammed "King Mo' Lawal

King Mo is a powerful wrestler and has power in his hands. After watching his fights a few times i still see some major holes in his standup game, but with only 6 fights in it is hard to judge a fighter who is improving at such an alarming rate. I will base my breakdown on what i have seen which is Mo's ability to use speed to shoot in and that same speed is slowly transfuring into his stand up game.

Prediction

This fight to me is a alot closer then i first thought it would be. Watching one of King Mo's fights on their own does not do him justice. To truly get a feel for this man it is you need to watch all his fights to see just how fast he is improving on all aspects of the MMA game. WIth that said Mousasi is a very experienced fighter with  a ton of ability. If Mo can manage to take Mousasi down and grindon him it may very well lead to a decision win in his favor. However I cannot get past the difference in stand up ability and i see Mousasi dropping Mo and winning this fight. I don't see it ending until late 3rd early 4th.
Gegard Mousasi via 3rd or 4th round TKO

Future

If Mousasi wins it is hard to say what is next for him in Strikeforce, but as i said the only realy interesting fight for him would be if Henderson jumped up in weight. The other option would be for Gegard to jump in weight and take on Andrei Arlovski or Werdum. Chances are Mousasi will not be seen in a Strikeforce cage until December at the earliest seeing as he will be taking part in the Dream Grand Prix. If he losses then it looks like he will only have rematches to look forward to. Strikeforce does not really have much of anything that is interesting for a rebound if Mousasi losses.

A win for Mo will open up the division to some new matches for the title. Babalu and Sokoudjouare not great choices but at least its a new pairing. To ensure one of them comes in on a win just put them in a rematch with one another. A loss for Mo does not hurt him here. Lawal is early enough in his career in which a loss to someone like Mousasi will not hurt him. Really this will be a great learning experience for Mo win, lose, or draw. The Hendo match will pass on to him if he is to win.

via strikeforce.com

Gilbert Melendez vs Shinya Aoki

In the third title fight of the night Gilbert Melendez (17-2) will put the Strikeforce light weight title on the line against Dream champion Shinya Aoki (23-4). Melendez was last seen beating Josh Thompson to win the title he currently holds. The fight was a toe to toe war. Before his title win Gilbert avenged his only other loss besides Thompson when he destroyed Mitsuhiro Ishida. Shinya Aoki is coming off one of the most talked about fights of last year and not because of the fight. In his last fight Aoki not only broke the arm of his opponent but then preceded to flip him off. This led to a shit storm on the MMA blogs with many people calling for Aoki's head.

Breakdown

Gilbert Melendez

Gilbert has great wrestling and takedown defence. On tne feet he is no slouch. Melendez has great Ground and pound and is good at staying out of trouble on the ground. I have seen a handful of his fights and the problem i see with him being he tends to get into slugfests and forgets technique. In the Thompson there were a few times in which he squired off and started to throw. Granted towards the end of the fight he kept his base as they traded, but it only takes one punch to land solid and its over and the belt is gone.

Shinya Aoki

Aoki's game plan is simple, get it to the ground because thats where he is most dangerous. Aoki has amazing submissions and has shown the ability to lock in anything from anywhere. Anyone who goes to the ground with Aoki are at risk of getting subbed. Aoki is great at subs but has shown little to no stand up. Also good wrestlers has been able to shut him down in the past. Aoki's comfort on the ground can sometimes work against him and ends with him being pounded out.

Prediction

I see this being a Melendez fight. Aoki does not have the stand up skill to threaten Gilbert thus not being able to lure him into a slugfest. Melendez is a busy ground and pounder and will come in with a ton more strengh then Aoki. Melendez will take this fight because he has too much power and i don't see him being caught in a submission. I will have to say Melendez by tko in the late 2nd round.                                                                                                                 

Gilbert Melendez via TKO 2nd round

Future

With a win Melendez will set up the first great rubber match in Strikeforce with Josh Thompson. Once again the divison is lacking in depth and the best Strikeforce can do it make a rematch or  get Dream to ship Joachim Hansen over. With a loss it will set back not only Gilbert, but all of Strikeforce. The only real option Strikeforce has going forward with Gilbert is another import or a rematch.

Aoki with a loss will be setback in his American coming out party and will put Dream in a tough position. If Aoki losses that would be the second Dream champion to lose to a Strikeforce fighter. To be honest i don't see a loss hurting Aoki that much. He will go back to Japan and get another boat load of money to fight god knows who. the real risk in this fight is the MMA scene in Japan. The scene is on the respirator as it is, if their greatest current champion gets smashed then it could cripple the scene. With a win Aoki will drag a title off to Dream and laugh in Coker's face as he never comes back to defend. Its a possibility that someone like Huerta will make his way over there to fight Aoki after the tournament.