Shinya Aoki Cannot Lose

by Alex Evans

via www.topgunmma.com

Shinya Aoki wants your attention. 

It all started with a surprising first round submission of top three lightweight and current Bellator champion Eddie Alvarez.

This win seemed to awaken something in Aoki.  Shortly after, he made his first call for BJ Penn stating that "the pinnacle for me is BJ Penn."  What’s crucial is Aoki’s final sentence, "I know that everyone says they want Penn, but I think I’m the number one Japanese fighter to be saying this." A few months later, after taking the DREAM lightweight title, the most prestigious lightweight belt Japan has to offer, it was hard to dispute this.

But the real transformation was to come at Dynamite, as he brutally snapped the arm of Sengoku champion Mizuto Hirota and proceeded to do a one-fingered salute song and dance that would put Brock Lesnar to shame.  Certainly, image and fan awareness are not unknown grounds for Aoki.  After all, those legendary rainbow pants of his are custom-made by a designer.

Yet for all of these feats, Aoki has never fought overseas.  All of his success has been found in his home country of Japan.  Indeed, even most, if not all, of his grappling achievements have come in Japan.

Similarly, all of his significant wins and losses come against equally alien competitors.  Men like Joachim Hansen, Alvarez, Gesias Calvancante, and Hirota cut their teeth in Japan.  Even the man to last defeat him, Hayato "Mach" Sakurai, while a legend in Japan, was beaten down by Matt Hughes in his only fight for an American promotion.

If anything, Aoki represents the state of the US-Japan divide in MMA post-Pride.  With a fighter so exclusively Japanese and so bound to the ring, rules, and competition of Japan, it’s hard not for certain questions to arise.  However, it also allows the increasingly public Aoki to become something much larger now that Strikeforce has come knocking.

On April 17th, Aoki will make his US debut when he fights Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez.  This is a risky fight for fans of Japanese MMA.  Indeed, it is probably the greatest nailbiter since Fedor Emelianenko battled Tim Sylvia. 

With the mixed success Pride stars have often found in the UFC, the continued belief that the UFC is exclusively where the best reside, the general ranting of UFC boss Dana White, and the smaller American viewership of Japanese MMA, Aoki has a lot on his shoulders.  If he loses to Gilbert Melendez on American soil, not only will the cries of "overrated" be thrown in his direction, but that of Japanese MMA and Japanese fighters as well.  After all, how could Japan’s number one fighter and a man ranked by consensus at #2 in the world be defeated by anyone but Penn?  The relevance of Japanese MMA will be questioned once again and Aoki will be labeled a paper tiger, carefully constructed by nefarious Japanese promoters.  Of course, if Aoki is suddenly considered falsely appraised, God only knows where that will leave men like Hansen. 

More largely speaking, if Japanese MMA is considered able to puff-up fighters and manipulate the rankings, what of other ranked Japanese fighters who haven’t even fought Aoki?  After all, if Aoki is handily defeated in the US, what of a guy like Tatsuya Kawajiri?

A defeat for Aoki at the hands of Melendez could very well be a disaster for Japanese MMA.   DREAM’s talent stand to have a stigma attached to them with DREAM itself veering dangerously close to being considered a small pond for even smaller fish.

But what if Aoki wins? 

If anything, a dominating submission win for Aoki would give fans of the panted one and Japanese MMA something to defend themselves with.  It’ll provide them with the most solid proof yet that Aoki, and by extension all of the stars who restrict themselves to overseas competition, are just as talented as they appear to be.  It’ll be a significant step to rebuilding the confidence that was shaken by men like the now lethargic and fishing-minded Mirko Cro Cop.

But make no mistake, the reward for winning does not outweigh the cost of losing for one simple reason: Gilbert Melendez is a Strikeforce fighter who has never competed in the UFC.  In other words, a win against him will help Aoki and DREAM, but it won’t completely silence the doubters or the haters, as the same voracious pack of wolves who claim Fedor Emelianenko not to be the world’s premier heavyweight by virtue of his lack of a UFC contract will lick their lips for every punch Melendez lands.  After all, if Melendez can put Aoki in trouble, a UFC fighter like Kenny Florian would surely murder him.   Right?  Anything less than a dominating win will give the dogs their scraps, a loss would give them a feast, and even a solid win may only give rise to a shrug of the shoulders.

Regardless, this is a fight Shinya Aoki cannot lose and it is without a doubt the most important fight of his career.  On the night he steps into the cage opposite Melendez, he will not merely be Shinya Aoki; he will be Japanese MMA. 

The good news is, I’m pretty sure he knows this.  After all, he did identify himself as a "Japanese fighter" above all else and on April 17th, for better or for worse, the world will find out what that means.