UFC 112: PPV Disaster?

Promoted To Frontpage From Fanposts By Kelvin Hunt

UFC 112: PPV Disaster?

On the surface, 112 should have everything a hard-core and even casual fan should want. Two title defenses featuring pound for pound greats and a fan favorite: Matt Hughes. Not to mention, the last time Silva and Penn were featured on a pay-per-view together, the UFC got nearly one million buys, and that was without Hughes. Cha-ching!

But hold the phone, a closer look at the situation at 112 could be foreboding for the UFC. The first thing to consider is that a great deal of success for UFC 101 could very well be attributed to riding the wave of excitement and hype coming off of UFC 100. Before 101, Silva had proven to be a ratings clunker. You must also consider the opponent for Silva. Griffin has always been a big ratings draw, especially when in his cherished "under dog" role. The UFC did a great job of pushing Griffin as the fan favorite with a real avenue to win: expose Silva’s wrestling using his size. At 112 Silva will be facing a much different opponent. First, we have to look at the fact that his last two middleweight title defenses were fan disasters and that 112 marks the champ's first fight at middleweight since those disasters. Speaking of  Silva's defenses, the UFC is taking a big risk of generating interest by putting him in the cage with another jiu-jitsu specialist after his atrocious fight with Thales Leites. Add in to that the confusion from casual fans who last saw Maia being back flipped by Nate Marquardt on Sports Center, and things could get bad.

But what about Penn? He’s proven to be a consistent draw for most of his career and could be the lynchpin for 112’s success. Well, in all of Penn’s big PPV fights theres been some kind of selling point. At 84, it was the number one and number two lightweights in the world who legitimately disliked each other, finally getting into the cage. At 94 it was a no-brainer, GSP vs Penn 2 was a superfight and had some of the most hype in the history of the sport, and at 101 Penn was coming off of the embarrassing beat down from GSP which made  him look human and by extension, made Florian look like an interesting challenger. After dominating Florian you saw a little bit of the interest fade in BJ Penn title defenses when the PPV buys dropped by 300,000. Now after completely destroying the much hyped Sanchez and simultaneously dispelling the myths of his lacking cardio, could Penn be in the same "no interesting challengers" boat as GSP and Silva? Plus, we have to look at the fact that Edgar has the personality of a brick wall and doesn’t have that big "selling point" that Maia has with his grappling and Hardy has with his power. Everything that Edgar does good, Penn already does great, so what would be the point in a lot of fans eyes?

Finally we have the third "big bout" of the night, Matt Hughes vs Renzo Gracie. I think the ability of this fight to draw numbers rests on the UFC’s ability to sell the Gracie vs Hughes angle. Because, on paper, Renzo is mediocre fighter who has never fought anywhere near the UFC, and has not competed since 2007. Hughes has had his ups and downs in PPV sales  but the general consensus is that he draws. But If the fans perceive him to be fighting a nobody, this fight could be a dud as well.

If all of that isn't enough to make you worried, you need to consider that this will be an overseas PPV for the UFC. A type of show that typically does mediocre in terms of sales. People will say that I very well could be eating my words in the weeks following April 10th, but right now, I think UFC 112: Invincible could be surprising folks for all of the wrong reasons.