UFC on Versus Pre-Fight Breakdown

The UFC’s debut on Versus tomorrow night looks to be one of the more enticing cards the promotion has put on live, "free" television, with a slew of divisionally relevant matches featuring contenders, near-contenders, and future superstars. Here’s a breakdown of what’s in store.

CO-MAIN EVENT: Junior dos Santos (10-1) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (11-4)

This heavyweight bout pits perhaps the division’s greatest striker in dos Santos against the well-regarded Gonzaga, a former top contender. Both Brazilians, dos Santos possess the better pedigree with tutelage in the esteemed Team Black House under the Noguiera brothers and Anderson Silva. Gonzaga is more the grizzled veteran and a grappling powerhouse, with successful runs at the Abu Dhabi and Mundials tournaments.

The knock on Gonzaga is that he wilts under pressure. Randy Couture handled him in his only championship bout in 2007, as the UFC legend never relented with an onslaught of dirty boxing and Greco-Roman smothering, despite having a broken arm. It’s difficult to claim Gonzaga lacks heart, however, considering he viciously knocked out Mirko Cro Cop at a time when the Croatian was one of the most feared fighters in the world. Gonzaga has yet to display his elite grappling credentials in the Octagon, instead preferring to use his immense power to ring up highlight KOs. He’s certainly capable of turning off the lights of any opponent at any time, but often gets careless as demonstrated when Shane Carwin dropped him last year.

Junior "Cigano" dos Santos has been in a constant race with Cain Velasquez on their respective hype machines in the heavyweight division since knocking Fabricio Werdum out of the UFC in 2008. With that thunderous uppercut, dos Santos announced his arrival to the big stage and has since reeled off three dominant wins over Stefan Struve (TKO), Cro Cop (verbal submission), and Gilbert Yvel (KO). Each successive fight has revealed something about Cigano: against Struve that he was no fluke; against Cro Cop that he can’t be intimidated; and against Yvel that he can take a punch as well as score a KO with just one of his own. This fight may reveal his capabilities on the mat, considering the smart game plan of Gonzaga would be to test the Noguiera purple belt of dos Santos.

If the majority of the fight remains standing, I strongly favor dos Santos. The way he snaps his jabs and follows with dynamite hooks is beautiful to watch. We’ve never seen him on the ground, and despite his preparation with the Noguiera brothers I have to favor Gonzaga. Both men possess brute strength, and Gonzaga is sure to outweigh Cigano by 15-20 pounds, but I don’t think this will have much bearing on the fight. Gonzaga wants to stand these days, and no one should stand with dos Santos. Junior dos Santos by KO, Round 2

CO-MAIN EVENT: Jon Jones (9-1) vs. Brandon Vera (11-4)

Maybe the only beneficiary of more hype than dos Santos in recent months, Jon "Bones" Jones faces the biggest challenge of his young career against Brandon "The Truth" Vera. A win here for either solidifies their place amongst the top-15 at light heavyweight, and brings both closer to contention for the most heavily contested title in all of MMA.

In Vera, Jones faces his most versatile opponent yet. Vera has very sharp Muay Thai, with snapping kicks and an aggressive clinch game. The problem is, he has only shown a willingness to attack the legs of his last few opponents, resulting in lackluster wins over Mike Patt, Reese Andy, and Krzysztof Soszynski since arriving at 205. His decision losses to Randy Couture and Keith Jardine were narrow, but still very disappointing for the fighter once considered the future of the heavyweight division. Nevertheless, Vera’s heavy kicks are always a threat and he demonstrated solid Greco-Roman ability against Couture, often reversing him and giving The Natural a dose of his own medicine against the cage at UFC 105. Also to be acknowledged is Vera’s brown belt in jiu-jitsu under Lloyd Irvin, an aspect Vera has recently promised to make more use of in his fight game.

In Jon Jones, Vera finds himself against the greatest athlete that’s ever stood across from him. In just a year mostly spent on undercards, Jones has established a reputation as the most dynamic fighter at 205. To refer to his striking as "unorthodox" has almost become cliché, though no more apt word is available. Jones seems to have an unlimited supply of spinning back fists/elbows at his disposal and his punches and kicks, though not the sharpest kickboxing by any means, come from absurd angles. Jones has an incredible ability to mix in wrestling and striking; one second an elbow is flying toward the side of your head, the next second he has you in a body lock and you’re headed to the mat. Jones is strong and fast, and his Greco is probably innately better than Vera’s. As shown against Stephan Bonnar and Matt Hammil (an All-American wrestler himself), Jones can dominate and excite with his wide array of trips, suplexes, and other throws.

Vera’s best chance is to keep his opponent at a distance. Jones has a freakish seven-foot wingspan, but Vera’s striking is much sharper and he could pick the young fighter apart at range. Jones is only 22 and just joined the elite Jackson Submission Fighting team, and has been working with Firas Zahabi, the head trainer of one Georges St. Pierre. Although Vera is more seasoned and fully capable of being a top contender, he just hasn’t shown anything recently that would suggest he’s back to being the fighter that destroyed Frank Mir and seemed to be heavyweight’s new golden boy. Jones is unpolished, but just too much to handle even now. Jon Jones by unanimous decision.

Cheick Kongo (24-6-1) vs. Paul Buentello (25-11)

Kongo is a very good kickboxer and Buentello is a standup fighter himself, so this one was obviously booked for both fighters to trade on the feet. Kongo couldn’t grapple his way out of a brown paper bag, but without having to worry about that here he can demonstrate with his brutal Muay Thai. Buentello is a fair boxer and can knock people out, but he’s nothing more than a journeyman at this point.

I expect Kongo to chop out the legs of "The Burrito" early and if it gets to the fence Buentello’s midsection will get busted up with knees. Paul has a puncher’s chance, but Kongo is younger, faster, and better. Cheick Kongo by TKO, Round 1

James Irvin (14-5) vs. Alessio Sakara (18-7)

Another fight that should bring the fireworks with two guys who prefer to trade in stand-up, this is Irvin’s first fight in over a year. Following being fed to Anderson Silva in the Spider’s debut at light heavyweight, Irvin saw a string of injuries and a personal battle with addiction to painkillers delay his return. Now probably even more cut than normal, Irvin debuts at 185 lbs. against Sakara, who—as I’m sure Joe Rogan will remind us throughout the telecast—has a pedigree as a professional boxer. Irvin used to have the UFC’s fastest knockout, that being over Houston Alexander who had previously mauled Sakara. I like James Irvin, and want him to do well, but I also think he’s the superior fighter on top of my unabashed bias. James Irvin by KO, Round 1

Undercard Bouts

Clay Guida over Shannon Gugerty, UD

Vladimir Matyushenko over Eliot Marshall, TKO Rd 2

Duane Ludwig over Darren Elkins, TKO Rd 1

John Howard over Daniel Roberts, UD

Brendan Schaub over Chase Gormley, TKO Rd 1

Mike Pierce over Julio Paulino, UD

Eric Schafer over Jason Brilz, Submission Rd 3

Joe Silva booked this card to be entertaining, as I expect three of the four main card fights to be finished. And the one I think will go to decision features the endlessly exciting Jon Jones; if that one is boring, it’s Vera’s fault. It’s a great lineup from the main event to the undercard; the UFC’s debut on Versus promises a night of excitement comparable to some of the promotions better pay-per-views and I expect it will deliver.