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Breaking Down The TUF 9 Finale Main Event: Diego Sanchez vs. Clay Guida

This Saturday night we'll be treated to a lightweight bout that should be pretty entertaining.  Diego Sanchez will be making his second appearance as a lightweight since dropping down from the welterweight division.  We last saw Sanchez a couple of months ago winning a decision against the always game Joe Stevenson.  Clay Guida has been a staple in the UFC lightweight division since late 2006.  Guida is currently riding a 3 fight winning streak, winning a very lackluster decision against Nate Diaz at UFC 94.  Let's take a look at these two fighters match up:

Clay Guida-Very good cardio, good chin, good wrestler, and does well in the scrambles.

Diego Sanchez-Very good cardio, great chin, good wrestler, does well in the scrambles, much improved stand up game, good GnP.

Star-divide

As you can see, these fighters match up fairly well, but Sanchez will enjoy a size advantage, stand up advantage, and an advantage in terms of submissions.  The only way I see Guida being able to win this fight is to implore the same strategy he used against Nate Diaz.  This consisted of a lot of hugging and maintaining top position.  Which I don't think he'll be able to do against Sanchez.  He's well versed in scrambling and is very slick in finding ways to take his opponents back.  Also, this will be the first time in a long time that Guida faces someone that can match or even surpass the pace he fights at. 

Of course, all of this is determined by Sanchez's game plan and he probably feels he has the stand up advantage and rightfully so.  However, if he falls in love with his striking and becomes one dimensional, he could find himself blanketed by "The Carpenter".  Guida is pretty difficult to finish, so I see Sanchez taking this one via decision.  He should be able to pick Guida a part standing and win the scrambles should they take place.  I could also see him taking Guida down to implement some GnP, which we haven't seen him do for quite some time.  According to Sanchez, a win here propels him into a title shot with the winner of the Kenny Floran/BJ Penn match up at UFC 101.  Give me your thoughts on Guida/Sanchez and how you see it going down.

The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale coverage

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I definitely see Diego winning this one. Clay does fight at a tremendous pace and is very resilient, but I agree with you that Sanchez is just a fighter with more tools. Now Sanchez vs. Stevenson? That might be a little tougher to predict.

by SlickRick00 on Jun 16, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

?

Guida/Stevenson…or Diaz/Stevenson? Sanchez already beat him.

http://www.mmaforreal.com

by Kelvin Hunt on Jun 16, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, mean Diaz vs. Stevenson.

by SlickRick00 on Jun 16, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i’ll be dissapointed if this fight goes down like diaz/stevenson. i would love to see diaz get the stoppage and get next for the winner of bj/kenflo. another ok fight and win against guida won’t further his status as the #1 contender. i can’t imagine diego losing to guida though and guida will not be able to use his “huggie bear” technique against diego imo. should be a great fight.

by bdw on Jun 16, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

THIS
i would love to see diaz get the stoppage and get next for the winner of bj/kenflo. another ok fight and win against guida won’t further his status as the #1 contender

http://www.mmaforreal.com

by Kelvin Hunt on Jun 16, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sounds pretty dead on

Sounds pretty dead on to me. Guida can be submitted, as we’ve all seen in the Huerta fight. However, Sanchez has shown that he can be beaten by a mediocre striker…see the Koscheck fight. I think Clay has a decent shot of “imposing his will”, but I still think Sanchez is a little bit better.

by MMAMoneyLine on Jun 16, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

No excuses…Sanchez lost that fight…but it wasn’t like he was dominated…plus the rumor was he fought with a staph infection…regardelss…Guida doesn’t have anywhere near the power of Koshcheck..and we must remember that Diego will be the larger fighter…so I don’t know if Guida could impose his will or not….we’ll find out Sat. though! That’s the beauty of the fight game.

http://www.mmaforreal.com

by Kelvin Hunt on Jun 16, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I reallllly want Diego to make a run at the title, so I’m going to pick Sanchez by submission out of complete bias.

by Jacky D on Jun 16, 2009 10:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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