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The "X" Factor In The Shane Carwin vs. Gabriel Gonzaga Fight

UFC heavyweight Shane Carwin will face his biggest test at UFC 96, in former title contender and BJJ blackbelt Gabriel Gonzaga.  A win against Gonzaga would give him instant crediblity and catapult him up the HW ladder near title contention.  A win for Gonzaga gets him another step closer to re-challenging for the UFC HW title.  However, there are a couple of question marks for both fighters going in to the fight such as:

  1. Can Gonzaga handle the pressure from a big strong guy like Shane Carwin?
  2. What is Shane Carwin going to look like if this fight makes it to the third round?

The knock on Gonzaga has been that he folds under pressure.  He starts out rather strong, but tends to fade the longer the fight goes.  He'll be facing one of the few heavyweights that's larger than he is.  On the other hand, Shane Carwin has NEVER been past the 2:11 mark of the first round.  In fact, that was in his very first fight about 3 1/2 years ago.  Carwin hasn't been past the 1:31 mark of the first round in his UFC career. Both guys are absolutely huge with Gonzaga checking in near 250lbs for most of his fights.  While Carwin has to cut weight to make the 265lb heavyweight limit and is heavily muscled.  It takes a great deal of oxygen to power these huge body's so if this fight makes it past the first round, conditioning will be the "X" factor.

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I think Carwin is in deep shit here – choose your poison; get knocked out or get submitted.

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Mar 2, 2009 7:27 PM EST reply actions  

I dunno…Carwin could use his wrestling to keep the fight standing…and he has KO power of his own. Check the Wellisch fight…a one hitta quitta.

http://www.mmaforreal.com

by Kelvin Hunt on Mar 2, 2009 7:44 PM EST reply actions  

Too unrefined in my opinion.

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Mar 2, 2009 8:06 PM EST reply actions  

Gonzaga’s biggest problem is his cardio, the myth that he folds under pressure is just that he was having his way with Werdum until he gassed out like Overeem has in his fights. Carwin’s only shot against Gabe is to land a big punch, aside from that he’s going to get destroyed by Napao he’s simply better than Shane at this point in their careers.

by Raker on Mar 2, 2009 11:10 PM EST reply actions  

He folded under the pressure that Couture put on him. I’m sure the big slam and the blow to the nose took it’s toll in the first round, but he was done after that for the most part. You could see Couture just take his soul in that third round.

http://www.mmaforreal.com

by Kelvin Hunt on Mar 2, 2009 11:15 PM EST reply actions  

hehe

Reminds me of the scene from Mortal Kombat where they take the guys soul after he loses to Lui Kang… great stuff… best worst movie ever!

In all seriousness, that is my biggest concern with Gonzaga, but I agree with Raker that (at least on paper) Gonzaga has shown us more and could beat Carwin.

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by funnytiger on Mar 3, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmm…nobody is giving Carwin a shot in this huh?

http://www.mmaforreal.com

by Kelvin Hunt on Mar 3, 2009 5:41 PM EST reply actions  

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