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In-Depth Analysis: Randy Couture Vs. Brandon Vera At UFC 105

The main event of UFC 105 featuring Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera is intriguing to say the least.  Not only does the style of each fighter pose questions, but the mental make up of each fighter and how they match up probably has more impact than anything.  We are going to take a look at what each fighter brings to the table physically and mentally, and determine just how the fight will probably go down on Saturday.  Check it all out below and after the jump.

Randy Couture

Randy Couture brings a wealth of experience to the cage with him.  He's primarily known for being tough mentally, and overcoming the odds time and time again.  This fight will be no different in that he's 46 years of age, and is coming off of two consecutive losses albeit against top level competition.  The following are Couture's keys to victory:

SBN coverage of UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera

Star-divide

-Close the distance

-Push The Pace

-Keep Vera guessing, which will not allow him to find his rhythm standing

These are things that Couture excels at, and how he wins the majority of his fights anyway, so it won't be anything new or flashy.  The most important thing is not allowing Vera to gain any confidence inside the cage and find his rhythm standing.  I'm under the impression that Vera needs to get off early and often in this fight, or he could begin to feel some self-doubt begin to creep in if Couture finds early success.

Brandon Vera

Vera isn't as experienced as Randy, but he's a very experienced fighter.  However, he doesn't possess any big fight experience the way Couture does.  Vera is as talented as they come, but doesn't seem to be as strong mentally as he needs to be in regards to trusting the talent he has.  He seems hesitant at times, and he who hesitates is lost or will lose in regards to MMA.  However, Vera seems to be making small improvements with each fight since moving down to the UFC light heavyweight division.  The following are his keys to victory:

-Don't get caught up in the awe of fighting your ‘idol'

-Establish range and find success EARLY

-Keep this fight standing at all cost unless you are able to take Couture down.

Vera fought another guy he had always looked up to in Frank Mir a few years back.  However, I think it's safe to say that was a Frank Mir that wasn't anywhere close to 100% physically or mentally at that point.  Couture could potentially present a lot of problems for Vera.  If Vera can find success early, I think it's his fight to lose.

X-Factors

-Couture's ability to take a punch.  He got dropped twice by Nogueira who isn't known for considerable punching power.

-Will the weight cut to 205 affect him negatively at 46 years of age, and not having done it in years?

-If Vera gets taken down, can he get back up to his feet? (He's not subbing Couture off his back)

The Fight Itself

We know that Couture ultimately wants to make this a wrestling match, or a fight in which he can clinch against the cage and use the old school tricks and dirty boxing.  Basically, he wants to take Brandon Vera out of his comfort zone.  Although Vera is well versed in clinch work and excels at muay thai, he'll want to stay clear of prolonged periods against the cage in the clinch.  Also, although Couture has improved his standup considerably in the last few years, he doesn't want to get into prolonged striking exchanges with Vera who will enjoy about a 3 inch reach advantage.  Vera also has great kicks, but I don't know how much he'll use them due to the threat of being taken down as a result of using them.  He typically throws them very quick and powerful just above the knee, so he may be able to get away with it.  If he lands them early, it could slow Couture down considerably and make it difficult to take Vera down later on. 

Ultimately, I think Vera will win this fight.  I know you can never count Couture out, and it would be a great bet if he was the heavy underdog.  However, time catches up with us all, and I think it will finally catch up with Couture at UFC 105.

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yeah you pretty much hit it on this one….I think Vera has all the tools to really pull out an impressive win but the question is will he use them or break..he seemed pretty confident and relaxed at the press conference but who knows come fight time….and Vera makes Randy look small..lol

by Charles Walker on Nov 12, 2009 11:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

This should be an entertaining fight. Brandon is a very talented kid and this is a HUGE opportunity for him on a big stage. There will likely be a few million people watching in the States alone.

by SlickRick00 on Nov 12, 2009 12:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don’t like it when I don’t even know who to root for, when I like both guys so much. But, as much as I love Randy, I don’t think he has a chance to become a champion again. Even if he were to get pass Vera, I see know way him beating Rashad, or much less Shogun or Machida. Vera, on the other hand, still has future in this sport and still could become a champion, although I don’t know how he would be beat Machida or Shogun.

I thought the same way when Nogueira fought Randy. Nogueira only has so many fights left in him and I really, really want to see Nogueira-Lesnar. If Nogueira were to beat Lesnar, I don’t know man. He would be SO huge in my eyes. Nogueira and Wanderlei Silva were my first true MMA heroes and you know how you always root for you first heroes no matter what?!

by aman on Nov 12, 2009 12:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Full Disclosure: I'm from Portland and could be considered a slightly biased party.

But, even looking at it from a neutral point of view, I still think Randy’s got the right set of skills to win this fight.

I think the keys listed in the original post are all excellent points. Vera needs to keep his jab going and keep the proper distance. Above all else, he can’t let this fight go to ground. That spells disaster for Vera if that happens.

Here’s my problem with Vera for this fight. While he’s got great mobility, excellent hand speed, decent takedown defense and is the taller fighter, he’s not as strong physically. I can see him wanting to use his Muay Thai after finding that his jab and his normal punches aren’t hurting Randy like he thought they might. As soon as he goes into a clinch with Couture, he will lose control of the fight. Couture’s got the strength and experience to know exactly how to take an opponent to the ground from the clinch. I don’t think that Randy can shoot for a leg and get a takedown that way. But I also don’t see how Vera is going to be able to keep Couture off of him and stop a clinch in every round.

This is all dependent upon Randy being able to handle the weight cut, of course. If the cut takes too much out of Couture, then Vera should have no problem dictating the pace and style of the fight. Otherwise, I think Randy either G&P’s him to a stoppage or he gets a decision.

Yes! Yes! In the face!

by LeafHawk on Nov 12, 2009 1:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I still think Randy’s got the right set of skills to win this fight

Oh, he does..I don’t think he will though.

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Follow Me On Twitter@MMA4Real

by Kelvin Hunt on Nov 12, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LeafHawk

You should join the MMA4Real betting game.

http://www.mmaforreal.com
Follow Me On Twitter@MMA4Real

by Kelvin Hunt on Nov 12, 2009 1:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I just created an account if you wanna send an invite.

I crave having attention brought to my lack of real MMA knowledge.

Yes! Yes! In the face!

by LeafHawk on Nov 12, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Invite sent man.

http://www.mmaforreal.com
Follow Me On Twitter@MMA4Real

by Kelvin Hunt on Nov 12, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I am from Salem.

Welcome, man. I love Portland! Some day I will come back to the States and settle down in this beautiful city.

I went to Oregon State, the very school were Couture coached wrestling, so I have a very special spot for Couture in my heart. But even I have to admit, he probably won’t make it, man.

by aman on Nov 12, 2009 1:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm harboring no illusions that Couture will ever see another title.

If, for some strange reason, Couture was put in the cage with Machida, it would be a disaster. That fight doesn’t last a round, I don’t think. Maybe ten years ago it would have, but not in 2009. That being said, I think Vera’s a good style match-up for Randy based on his not-so-impressive ground game.

I actually went to UO, so as is obligatory, I hate you. (In all honesty I know enough cool Beavs that I can’t hate on them all.)

Portland’s doing alright these days. Just had our three month summer with no rain as usual, so of course the weather is making up for it now.

Yes! Yes! In the face!

by LeafHawk on Nov 12, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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