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One Fan's Second Watching of Machida-Rua: By The Numbers


Robbery? I'm inclined to say it was a noticeably bad decision, in my opinion. I'll admit that I was leaning toward classifying it as a robbery in the moments after the decision was announced for Machida to retain his title. But the statistics nerd in me wanted to see what the fight stats were. Knowing that Fight Metric and Compustrike probably won't have the stats available until tomorrow or Monday, I decided to rewatch the fight (with the sounds off) to score landed strikes (since this was almost exclusively a standup battle). When I orignially watched this fight, I had it 4 rounds to 1. The only round I gave Machida was round 3. I did think a couple of early rounds were close but it seems obvious that Shogun won. I do want to share my findings with you, though, from my second viewing of the fight. And keep in mind that I'm, admittedly, not an authority on scoring landed shots. I think my numbers, however, won't be too far from the stats that get officially released:

Landed Blows:

Round 1- Rua-13; Machida- 9 (I still think that Rua won this round, though it was a competitive round)

Round 2- Rua-13; Machida- 11 (I can definitely see someone scoring this for Machida; I'm unsure who won this one, to be honest. Rua eeked out a statistical advantage basically because of landed knees in the clinch against the fence which seemed more impressive the first time I watched the fight, but less so the second time. I could see this as a Machida round, partly because his connect % was definitely higher. Possibly a draw?)

Round 3- Rua- 12; Machida- 15 (Machida's best round. I gave this round to him the first time I watched the fight and I gave it to him the second time as well.)

Round 4- Rua- 8; Machida- 4 (The action really seemed to slow in this round. Frankly I didn't think either fighter did much at all. A round for Rua most likely.)

Round 5- Rua-14; Machida- 7 (Rua's best round, arguably.)

Totals- Rua-60; Machida- 46

Average Round Stats- Rua-12; Machida- 9.2

The first time I watched the fight I scored it 4 rounds to 1 for Rua. The second time I watched it I leaned toward either 3 rounds to 2 or 3 rounds to 1 with a draw round.

A couple of points of possible interest: Shogun seemed to do a little more damage to Machida so I think a judge has to give him an edge there. Conversely, when these stats come out I think you'll see a noticable edge for Machida in efficiency. I noticed a lot more misses by Shogun and blows that didn't land cleanly than I did during the first viewing of this fight. So here's the thing: If the numbers above are close to being accurate, plus if Machida has a healthy edge in connect %, I still would argue that Machida won. But could it still be classified a robbery? I don't think so. I save that term for the Holyfield-Lewis decisions of the world. I'm not sure this qualifies.But I know that emotions are pretty high right now because of the bad decision. And I won't argue that Lyoto won this one because I don't believe that he did.

Poll
Was Shogun Rua Robbed Against Lyoto Machida?
No
96 votes
Yes
221 votes

317 votes | Poll has closed

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Good Stuff Rich

Front page this later on if you want to…you watching the press conference right now? Machida is pretty busted up…and Rua only has a couple of marks on his face…plus Machida’s body is wrecked…I think Rua did way more damage to Machida than vice versa….which is why I think Rua won….admittedly I haven’t re-watched it..

It was hard to get it all in because I was writing the post at the same time….but I’m going to re-watch it tomorrow(cause I’m about to lay this thang dizzown!) and probably do another post on it when I get out of church.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 25, 2009 2:14 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No doubt in my mind that Rua won. I’ll always think this was the wrong decision.

by SlickRick00 on Oct 25, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I added a poll

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 25, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I saw Machida getting battered… the reason I’ll go ahead and call this a robbery is that I can’t recall a single fight where somebody more deserving didn’t get the nod. Machida won 1 round at best.

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 25, 2009 2:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i had it 3 rnds to 2 for rua. rogan did such a WRETCHED job calling this fight, which probably will take away from the fact that rua DID win this fight. i turned the sound off after the 3rd. my nephew was watching it with me, and i would consider him a casual fan at best kept asking “why doesn’t he say anything when machida lands a punch”. after the fight was over i told him i thought shogun won, but don’t be surprised if the judges give it to machida", and they did. i haven’t watched it a 2nd time though. i agree with rich that “robbery” is too strong. bad decision? yes, but robbery, no. people are getting carried away with comparing this to boxing, where fighters can win 10 out f 12 rounds convincingly and still lose the fight. dana said at the postfight press conference that BOTH fighters could have done more at the end of the rounds to take it. i think that the fact that most thought machida would blow right through a gassed rua by the 2nd rnd and then seeing rua perform so well might have some skewing things a bit. rua clearly won this fight, imo, but he didn’t do enough to call it a robbery. i’m pretty sure there will be an immediate rematch, the way dana was talking at the post fight. this was a bad decision, but not by any means, “the worst ever”. iv’e been watching boxing/mma for 20+ years to know the difference. this wasn’t nearly as bad as holyfield/lewis 1 being a draw or roy jones losing in the olympics. as far as mma goes, bisping/hamilll was worse to me. honestly, i didn’t even think tonights fight was that great a fight, but the rest of the event was.

by bdw on Oct 25, 2009 3:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah. I’m a huge boxing fan and have been watching terrible decisions on the regular. This is a bad one, not trying to downplay it. I thought Rua won and can’t even justify a draw. It wasn’t a whitewashing, though. Some could have this as 3 rounds to 2 is all I’m saying.

by SlickRick00 on Oct 25, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was a competitive fight no doubt, but it wasn’t like Cerrone-Henderson where the decision really could go either way (and everyone had their justification, about 50-50 from what I saw but no one except for a d-bag or two tried to call it a robbery).

I guess it comes down to semantics and what kind of blow-out is needed for it to be a ‘robbery’, but yeah a clear-cut decision going the other way is enough for me to label it one.

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 25, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed. At the end of the day I think Shogun is the one that should be wearing that belt. Let’s hope they can run this one back ASAP.

by SlickRick00 on Oct 25, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I’m starting to see it that way now that my rage is subsiding lol… we get to see one of the absolute best fights of 09 again :)

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 25, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Although fight metrics are neat to look at, I don’t think it’s really fair to call fights in terms of strikes. Does one fighter getting in ten shots when the other gets in eight give him the round? Seems better to call that a 10-10. I think that this fight was close in the first three rounds, and although I thought Rua won I don’t think it’s TOO out of line for Machida to get the win. I gave 1 and 3 to Machida not because of the number of strikes, but because of the impact (harder shots landed versus quantity). No doubt there’s some poor judging involved though, at the end of the day.

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by -Neil- on Oct 25, 2009 4:23 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Man I hate that some are trying to paint the crowd out as an angry mob — they cheered Machida like crazy for crying out loud!

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 25, 2009 11:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not only did Rua land more, but the strikes he landed did more damage. Lyoto was picked apart and I just don’t see how anybody could give him three rounds of that fight. Looks like there will be a rematch though, which is good to see

R.I.P Darren Sutherland

by Hellsing on Oct 25, 2009 12:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Incidentally, the stats are now available:

http://compustrike.com/stats_files/ufc_104/MacHida-Rua.HTM

We can argue about whether or not this was a blowout, but the numbers reflect what we all thought we saw: A deserved win for Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

by SlickRick00 on Oct 25, 2009 6:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yea
A deserved win for Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

A win you say that….the question you have to ask is…

Did Machida deserve to keep the title after last night?

If you say no…then it’s a robbery IMO.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 25, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah everyone’s arguing the semantics of it, a robbery somehow having to involve a blowout.

If a dude shoots you in the knee and takes your wallet or just makes you give it to him under knife threat it’s still a ‘robbery’ (in the other sense of that very same word).

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 25, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yea

Robbery=The guy that deserved the win not getting the win…..last night’s fight was close…but it wasn’t a toss up either by any means IMO.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 25, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At the end of the day it does just come down to semantics. We all agree that the deserving fighter didn’t get the nod. I tend to save the term robbery for egregiously bad decisions (i.e. a fighter getting the nod that clearly didn’t even come close to winning a round and himself almost got finished multiple times). I would say the guy not deserving the win getting the nod would be a bad decision. What happened to Roy Jones Jr. in Korea would constitute a robbery. I’m with you on something you said earlier. If I was making a 205 pound top 10, I couldn’t rate Machida above Shogun at this point. I might be able to call it a tie but I couldn’t, in good conscience, give him the # 1 spot all by himself.

by SlickRick00 on Oct 25, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Word

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 25, 2009 9:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh man … he’s still a ways away from Jan ‘07 Rua, but I think he’s on his way. He’s not even 30 yet, so I think the sky’s still the limit.

by Seanny Rotten on Oct 26, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think he's better than the '07 version

Because he was much more calculating and not as wild…plus his cardio held up well.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 26, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

SlickRick00

I thought you did a very effective tallying of the striking.

How would you quantify the grappling part of this fight?

by Seanny Rotten on Oct 26, 2009 7:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks. Welcome to the site, by the way. Interesting question. There were no takedowns but Rua did make a few attempts during the course of the fight. The attempts were stuffed and both fighters ended up in clinch against the cage. It’s tough for me to allow the grappling aspect to benefit either fighter much since it wasn’t a major factor in the fight. I thought Rua scored well with some knees to Machida’s legs during the clinch, nothing major but it was basically Shogun staying busy. Machida didn’t land as many strikes from clinch but some of the knees that scored did appear to be solid.

by SlickRick00 on Oct 26, 2009 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also

Rua landed a couple of really solid elbows to Machida’s head as they broke away from the clinch

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 26, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True. Forgot about that.

by SlickRick00 on Oct 27, 2009 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think people are the best judges and the first impression is allways right…shogun should ve win this one…BY UNANIMOUS DECISION

by ammaroba on Oct 30, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Word

Welcome to the site and thanks for joining the community!

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 30, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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