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UFC 104 Preview: Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell

UFC heavyweight Cain Velasquez (6-0)

UFC heavyweight Cain Velasquez (6-0)

 

Count me among the people that are drinking the Cain Velasquez kool-aid. A former standout wrestler at Arizona State, Cain quickly became a celebrated prospect early into his professional MMA career. Rumors spread quickly about Cain's performance in the gym at American Kickboxing Academy and, by word of mouth, many in the industry became familiar with the name of Cain Velasquez before ever having seen him compete. This 27-year-old fighter has shown an ability to takedown and control opponents on the mat and has also demonstrated some striking ability. Cain did display some vulnerability in his decision win over Cheick Kongo in Germany back in June, being noticeably rattled by some heavy punches that Kongo landed. Let me be clear: I'm not asserting that Cain will go undefeated or dominate the division. He will have slipups along the way. But I do believe that, with the right gameplan, he has the tools and ability to become a world champion in the heavyweight division. I could very well be wrong, though. Saturday should provide an interesting look at how he deals with a competent, tough veteran. Velasquez has a professional record of 6-0 with five wins coming by way of knockout and no wins coming by way of submission. The combined career winning percentage of the opponents that he has faced so far in his career is 68.5%.

Ben Rothwell has had an eventful career. He has fought on small cards all over the Midwest. He's competed in the now defunct IFL and he's also fought on pay-per-view for Affliction. Now this 36 fight veteran (an impressive amount of fights considering he's only 28-years-old), a guy that has paid his dues, finds himself with an opportunity to not only compete on a UFC pay-per-view event in Los Angeles, but fight just before the main event.  And trust me; he doesn't plan on letting some 6-0 prospect spoil this hard earned opportunity. I'm expecting Ben to come into this matchup in the best shape of his career. He's had months to prepare in a real training camp. Ben is a brawler that has fairly heavy hands and throws some nice knees. He's also no slouch on the ground, with nearly a dozen victories by submission to his credit. And you can bet that he's spent the past few months doing nothing but preparing himself to keep this fight standing to try and test the durability of his young opponent. Rothwell has a professional record of 30-6 with seventeen wins coming by way of knockout and eleven wins coming by way of submission. The combined career winning percentage of the opponents that he has faced so far in his career is, just like Velasquez, 68.5%.

Some observers think that this fight has upset written all over it. It's true that Rothwell is a fairly good heavyweight striker and that Cain might not have as easy a time taking him down if he gets in trouble. Such points are valid. Still, I've got to go with what I see as the probability here. A win here would officially start the "Cain Velasquez for a title shot" campaign. Cain is a very driven athlete and I believe he'll come in more focused than ever on Saturday night. And with Zuffa making business moves to gain visibility for their product in Mexico, you can bet that Velasquez knows the potential financial rewards of continuing to ascend the UFC's heavyweight division. I think we'll see the guys at AKA put together a good gameplan for this one. My prediction: Cain Velasquez by decision.

Poll
Which fighter will be victorious at UFC 104?
Cain Velasquez (6-0)
45 votes
Ben Rothwell (30-6)
43 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments |

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It’s always a good bet to pick the strong wrestler in a match-up such as this… Cain’s probably going to win via decision, but I’m still thinking about placing a little upset money on Big Ben

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 22, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Might not be a bad gamble if the odds make it worthwhile.

by SlickRick00 on Oct 22, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yea

I think Cain can pull it out…but Rothwell will be a stiff test.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 22, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BIG BEN BY REAR NAKED CHOKE 3RD

by valtheguy on Oct 22, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

YESTERDAY BODOG HAD BIG BEN AT +285 THIS MORNING HE"S +300…..SOMETHING SMELLS FISHY

by valtheguy on Oct 22, 2009 11:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Seriously I know it was a while ago but Roy Nelson out-wrestled Ben in the IFL and got robbed of a DEC, Cain is a far better wrestler than Nelson and Ben is not as good technical striker as Congo was. Easy W for Cain IMO

by EVeezy on Oct 22, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yea

Only thing is…if Velasquez gets clipped by Rothwell like he was against Kongo…he might not get the chance to recover.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 22, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah if Cain gets clipped he might be the one ending up on his back… Didn’t Kongo have him down or at least very nearly at some point? I’ma have to watch that fight again today or tomorrow.

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 22, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yea

Kongo dropped Cain in every round I think…if not…at least two of the rounds…

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 22, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did a breakdown of Kongo/Velasquez and tried to apply what we saw there on this fight

Even though Cain officially outweighs Kongo he looks small next to the Frenchman.

Round 1:

Cain cuts Kongo off forcing his back against the cage — he moves in, gets clipped and drops to one knee for a quick second — Kongo catches him again as he stands up… Cain recovers and drives for the double leg, hustling relentlessly and overwhelming Kongo as they transition all over the place with Velasquez controlling him and peppering him with shots for the rest of the round. Several high-impact takedowns but not much damage delivered… Kongo looks tired in the corner, Velasquez as fresh as a daisy.

Round 2:

Velasquez chases after Kongo and gets awarded with a righ hook to the temple which drops him to his knees. Kongo drives for a double leg of his own, while he breifly puts Velasquez on his butt it’s not succssful… everyone is screaming for him to separate and create distance, but for some reason he clinches with Cain. Cain recovers, grabs a leg and drags Kongo to the ground. Kongo turtles up and is hit with knees and hammerfists. Again, it’s the same transitions, control and shots as in Round 1 for the duration.

Round 3:

Velasquez immediately starts chasing Kongo, who connects with a couple of straight shots but nothing like in the other two rounds. Kongo stuffs a takedown and goes for one of his own and actually gets it for a short while… he overextends pushing for another double, basically giving Cain back control north-south style. Cain spins around to take his back and starts peppering.

The story of the fight:

- Cain’s ability to recover and his relentless top-control.
- Cain getting caught as he chases his opponent.

While Rothwell may not be as accomplished a striker as Kongo (who also happens to have go-go gadget arms) he has reach and power to create problems for Cain if he times and counters him when he’s moving in. Kongo looked like a turtle on his back but he still had the strength to move Cain when he actually did try to buck — Kongo is by no means a big HW and Rothwell will dwarf Velasquez, he also has a half-way decent submission game and will probably at least do something when/if he’s on the bottom.

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 22, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ben most certainly has a good shot in this one. Looking back at that Velasquez-Kongo fight, one thing I was impressed with: I’m not sure I ever remember seeing many fighters get repeatedly blasted with hard shots that put them in danger, yet relentlessly keep coming forward. I kept thinking that if it was me I’d have tried to stay out of Cheick’s range and pick the right opportunity to time a shoot or clinch. Cain just kept marching in no matter how many times he got tagged. That could case an “L” for him eventually and he’ll learn from it. Makes for some interesting fights, though.

by SlickRick00 on Oct 22, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yep

also, good stuff 3PA.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 22, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah he has mad heart and aggression… but like you said, that could come back to bite him in the ass if he throws caution to the wind against the wrong dude (Carwin or even Lesnar tagging him like that and it’s good night, and even if he survives you can count on them capitalizing as they have leagues better wrestling than Kongo).

But yeah I like the fighting spirit he displays — if say Andrei Arlovski had the mental strength of Cain he would be a world champion right now, it can mos def be the difference maker… I’m really hyped for this fight I can tell you that much.

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 22, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if say Andrei Arlovski had the mental strength of Cain he would be a world champion right now

Shit, if AA had my mental strength that mofo would be champion…lol.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 22, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good Breakdown

Congo is not a big Heavy because his strikes would be a lot slower if he was say 250. Rothwell has a decent jab but his power comes from his hooks . Cain can time those hooks right he will shoot in without reciveing any damage. I think you can use Congo as a mesureing stick but Rothwell has never shorten his hooks like Congo did plus Rothwell has never shown as much diverse striking as Congo.

by EVeezy on Oct 22, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True

If nothing else the Kongo fight is worth examining because Cain was in deep trouble for the first time in his UFC career (haven’t watched the fights he had outside of the organization).

Going against wrestlers the window of opportunity is usually pretty small as you’ll end up on your ass with the quickness

The one thing I would take from that is to exploit how he rushes in — of yourse you have to adapt what to do with it to Big Ben’s skillset and strength.

Bloody hell.

by 3PA on Oct 22, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

It was the first time Cain was in deep trouble. And like you say if he does rush straight forward he is going to get his head knocked off

by EVeezy on Oct 22, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Ben in this matchup. Cain is no joke and there’s a reason “Brown Pride” is a big favorite but I just get the feeling we’ll be hearing one of those patented “it was the best thing that could’ve happened to me” quotes after a first loss.

by The Real T-Bone on Oct 22, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This shit is knotted up dead even.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 22, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that’s crazy. how often does that happen…with those odds?

by The Real T-Bone on Oct 22, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha

not often.

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by Kelvin Hunt on Oct 22, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the odds in nevada are not even moving +240. on the fantasy picks i made today i think i got....

him at +320 or +340. in nevada that is a good thing to see 85% of the time that people are piling money on cain(in this case it’s happening on the fantasy money picks). the public is usually wrong that is why casino’s make money. i still think he is a competitive dog along with spencer fisher. betting the whole ufc fight card is only about a 2 year happening in nevada. 1 year for wec fights.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Oct 23, 2009 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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